Ferguson vs. Cloutier, 2000: A River Nine and the Limits of Hindsight

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Documented hand · 2000

The final card changed the winner; it did not reveal the reasoning available before it fell.

Record Cards / development
Ferguson A♠ 9♣
T. J. Cloutier A♦ Q♣
Decisive card River 9

What happened

The WSOP archive records Ferguson calling Cloutier’s all-in and winning after a river nine.

The revealed starting hands shared an ace, with Cloutier holding the stronger kicker. That is a card comparison, not a complete assessment of Ferguson’s decision against the range he believed Cloutier could hold. The short account is not used to manufacture missing stack sizes or an exact preflop price.

What the case teaches

A call is judged against the opponent’s possible range, not just the one hand later revealed. Suppose, in an unrelated example, a call costs 20 chips and the final pot after calling would be 100. The break-even winning share is 20%. Knowing that one particular opponent holding dominates yours does not, by itself, establish your equity against the entire range. Conversely, a fortunate river does not prove that your range estimate was sound.

Does winning the hand prove the call was correct?

No. A correct decision can lose and an incorrect decision can win. Price, ranges and the tournament situation are needed to assess the decision.

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Sources

Source pages checked 5 October 2026. Historical results refer to the dates stated; examples marked hypothetical are Casino101 calculations.